Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 12th, 2023

Danielle McIntosh • April 12, 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

April 12, 2023


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.


Inflation in many countries is easing in the face of lower energy prices, normalizing global supply chains, and tighter monetary policy. At the same time, labour markets remain tight and measures of core inflation in many advanced economies suggest persistent price pressures, especially for services.


Global economic growth has been stronger than anticipated. Growth in the United States and Europe has surprised on the upside, but is expected to weaken as tighter monetary policy continues to feed through those economies. In the United States, recent stress in the banking sector has tightened credit conditions further. US growth is expected to slow considerably in the coming months, with particular weakness in sectors that are important for Canadian exports. Meanwhile, activity in China’s economy has rebounded, particularly in services. Overall, commodity prices are close to their January levels. The Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects global growth of 2.6% this year, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025.


In Canada, demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight. Economic growth in the first quarter looks to be stronger than was projected in January, with a bounce in exports and solid consumption growth. While the Bank’s Business Outlook Survey suggests acute labour shortages are starting to ease, wage growth is still elevated relative to productivity growth. Strong population gains are adding to labour supply and supporting employment growth while also boosting aggregate consumption. Housing market activity remains subdued.


As more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly, consumption is expected to moderate this year. Softening foreign demand is expected to restrain exports and business investment. Overall, GDP growth is projected to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year. This implies the economy will move into excess supply in the second half of this year. The Bank now projects Canada’s economy to grow by 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024 before picking up to 2.5% in 2025.


CPI inflation eased to 5.2% in February, and the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation were just under 5%. The Bank expects CPI inflation to fall quickly to around 3% in the middle of this year and then decline more gradually to the 2% target by the end of 2024. Recent data is reinforcing Governing Council’s confidence that inflation will continue to decline in the next few months. However, getting inflation the rest of the way back to 2% could prove to be more difficult because inflation expectations are coming down slowly, service price inflation and wage growth remain elevated, and corporate pricing behaviour has yet to normalize. As it sets monetary policy, Governing Council will be particularly focused on these indicators, and the evolution of core inflation, to gauge the progress of CPI inflation back to target.


In light of its outlook for growth and inflation, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 4½%. Quantitative tightening continues to complement this restrictive stance. Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 7, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 12, 2023.


Read the April 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report.


Danielle McIntosh

Licensed Mortgage Broker

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 12th, 2025

By Danielle McIntosh • March 12, 2025
Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 2¾% FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario March 12, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape. After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies. Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed. Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation. Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices. While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points. Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 16, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

Collections Can Prevent Mortgage Financing

By Danielle McIntosh • March 5, 2025
A question that comes up from time to time when discussing mortgage financing is, “If I have collections showing on my credit bureau, will that impact my ability to get a mortgage?” The answer might have a broader implication than what you might think; let's spend a little time discussing it. Collections accounts are reported on your credit bureau when you have a debt that hasn’t been paid as agreed. Now, regardless of the reason for the collection; the collection is a result of delinquency, it’s an account you didn’t realize was in collections, or even if it’s a choice not to pay something because of moral reasons, all open collections will negatively impact your ability to secure new mortgage financing. Delinquency If you’re really late on paying on a loan, credit card, line of credit, or mortgage, and the lender has sent that account to collections, as they consider it a bad debt, this will certainly impact your ability to get new mortgage financing. Look at it this way, why would any lender want to extend new credit to you when you have a known history of not paying your existing debts as agreed? If you happen to be late on your payments and the collection agencies are calling, the best plan would be to deal with the issue head-on. Settle the debts as quickly as possible and work towards establishing your credit. Very few (if any) lenders will even consider your mortgage application with open collections showing on your credit report. If you’re unaware of bad debts It happens a lot more than you’d think; people applying for a mortgage are completely unaware that they have delinquent accounts on their credit report. A common reason for this is that collection agencies are hired simply because the lender can’t reach someone. Here’s an example. Let’s say you’re moving from one province to another for work, you pay the outstanding balance on your utility accounts, change your phone number, and make the move. And while you think you’ve paid the final amount owing, they read your meter, and there is $32 outstanding on your bill. As the utility company has no way of tracking you down, they send that amount to an agency that registers it on your credit report. You don't know any of this has happened and certainly would have paid the amount had you known it was due. Alternatively, with over 20% of credit reports containing some level of inaccuracy, mistakes happen. If you’ve had collections in the past, there’s a chance they might be reporting inaccurately, even if it's been paid out. So as far as your mortgage is concerned, it really doesn’t matter if the collection is a reporting error or a valid collection that you weren’t aware of. If it’s on your credit report, it’s your responsibility to prove it’s been remediated. Most lenders will accept documentation proving the account has been paid and won’t require those changes to reflect on your credit report before proceeding with a mortgage application. So how do you know if you’ve got mistakes on your credit report? Well, you can either access your credit reports on your own or talk with an independent mortgage advisor to put together a mortgage preapproval. The preapproval process will uncover any issues holding you back. If there are any collections on your bureau, you can implement a plan to fix the problem before applying for a mortgage. Moral Collections What if you have purposefully chosen not to pay a collection, fine, bill, or debt for moral reasons? Or what if that account is sitting as an unpaid collection on your credit report because you dispute the subject matter? Here are a few examples. A disputed phone or utility bill Unpaid alimony or child support Unpaid collections for traffic tickets Unpaid collections for COVID-19 fines The truth is, lenders don’t care what the collection is for; they just want to see that you’ve dealt with it. They will be reluctant to extend new mortgage financing while you have an active collection reporting on your bureau. So if you decide to take a moral stand on not paying a collection, please know that you run the risk of having that moral decision impact your ability to secure a mortgage in the future. If you have any questions about this or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you!
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